Friday, June 18, 2010

"What are they waiting for?" Bipin Adhikari

It is very dangerous to buy time looking for drastic changes in the balance of power in the country before letting the CA resume its work. To put it more categorically, any attempt towards helping a split in the UCPN (Maoist), supposedly to “rightsize” it in the CA, is a most irresponsible approach to handling the situation. Its breakup into rival forces is not in the interest of Nepal.

BIPIN ADHIKARI

http://www.ekantipur.com/the-kathmandu-post/2010/06/16/oped/what-are-they-waiting-for/209491/

KATHMANDU, JUN 16 - It has already been 20 days since the tenure of the Constituent Assembly (CA) was extended on May 28 for an additional one year. Three days after, on June 1, CA Chairman Subash Nembang, otherwise an unassuming speaker, warned all the political parties represented in the CA that business as usual would not help to write a new constitution.

As he pointed out, strong commitment on the part of all and willingness of the three major parties — the UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress and UML — to implement the understanding signed with each other on the midnight of May 28 are the preconditions to get the job done. Since then, 17 days have already passed. But there has been no change either in the attitude or in the temperament or the modus operandi of the major contenders for power. Rather, what was written so clearly in the memorandum of understanding signed in the presence of UML leader Khadga Oli has become undecipherable.

It is not surprising though. Many agreements and understandings that were negotiated and signed in the past had met a similar fate. Agreements should not be signed if they are not going to be kept. A sort of “elitism” in the best sense of the term is so crucial for the success of any venture as demanding as writing a new constitution through a constituent assembly. None of the constitutional conventions, or a CA like ours, has ever succeeded in its mission unless it had proud “elitist” leaders who were a cut above the masses and who had extraordinary skills, abilities and wisdom, or commitment to the principles of public morality, democracy and the virtues of the rule of law.

In many cases, it is the elitist leaders, especially those with charismatic powers, who have helped regain the lost egalitarianism in many societies as the governing principle of the day and not vice versa. This egalitarianism and commitment to the consent of the “governed” provide the moral strength in the process of change. When there are such leaders, vocal and out for these values, they are able to find a democratic exit for the country, whether through the constituent assembly or otherwise.

One such “elite” leader in Nepal who could represent the mass with the strength of his personality and character was B.P. Koirala (1914-82) — probably the only politician in the country who could qualify for the term “statesman”. He was far ahead of his time. He practised atheism, defended secularism, advocated emotional (sexual) freedom, opined in favour of euthanasia, pleaded for the right to commit suicide in appropriate cases, and stood for modernity in all aspects of the law and society.

These qualities in him ignited most of the leaders of his generation, yet his life and work had a profound influence on the mental make-up of the nation, its social structure and intellectual development. As long as Koirala was alive, the political system had no other option but to maintain a façade of basic democratic values and nationalism, whatever was the political system of the day. He maintained the terms of the political culture and the processes of change, even though the system and its external patrons were always up to his neck. With his demise in 1982, the country lost a moral authority. The situation has not changed much even now.

When it comes to India, Jawaharlal Nehru (prime minister 1947-64), a highly educated “elite”, had a similar impact on the psyche of a newly unified India. He was the answer to the enormous challenges that the Constituent Assembly and several years of transitional problems thereafter that India had to face. Without him, not just his associates like Ambedkar but also Vallabhbhai Patel, Rajendra Prasad and Abdul Kalam Azad would not have been able to steer the CA process forward. The presence of Nehru in the Indian Constituent Assembly was a guarantee for the use of talents like B.N. Rau, the constitutional adviser, and S.N. Mukherjee, the chief draftsman of the Indian constitution. Nehru’s enlightened ideas and aspirations remained unchallenged in the assembly, and that provided the guarantee that an aspiring new democracy needed to draft a democratic constitution.

This is true about most of the American founding fathers as well. It was a very different generation by modern standards, but most of them who were taking the lead as signers of the declaration of independence or the framers of the new constitution were a highly motivated “elite” of the day. Whether as politicians or jurists or statesmen or soldiers or diplomats or ordinary citizens, their leadership gave not just a moral character to the changes on behalf of the common people, but also a human face to the changes. What is written in the formal document is one thing, but who have written it for posterity and who are implementing it is also no less important.

The fact that the CA is in limbo and that it is no one’s priority has become very clear to everybody in Nepal by now. Who wanted it and for what purpose is also becoming clearer to the educated masses of Nepal. There could be many discussions on whether those who steered the process forward had sustainable options available to them. There could be a number of charges against the existing leadership, their professional abilities, and their concept of right and wrong, and also the sense of change. But the most basic thing is that the CA must produce a constitution amid all these challenges and help the country emerge from the existing mess. A change in government, and more clearly, implementation of the three-point understanding of May 28 is crucial for this purpose.

It is very dangerous to buy time looking for drastic changes in the balance of power in the country before letting the CA resume its work. To put it more categorically, any attempt towards helping a split in the UCPN (Maoist), supposedly to “rightsize” it in the CA, is a most irresponsible approach to handling the situation. Its breakup into rival forces is not in the interest of Nepal.

lawyers_inc_nepal@yahoo.com

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

१४ जेठको सेरोफेरो - डा. विपिन अधिकारी

आवरण : १४ जेठको सेरोफेरो
http://himalkhabar.com/news.php?id=3286

संविधानको आठौं संशोधनले मुलुकलाई धेरै विषम परिस्थितिहरूबाट जोगाएको छ। तर, संविधानसभा बचाउने नाममा अपनाइएको यो प्रक्रियाबाट संसदीय बहुमत भएको वैधानिक सरकारलाई अवैधानिक तरिकाले विलुप्त हुन पार्ने नजिर पनि कायम भएको छ- प्रजातान्त्रिक नेपालमा । डा. विपिन अधिकारी को विश्लेषण


अहिले पनि संसारभर मौलिक अधिकार तथा स्वतन्त्रताप्रति अतिवादी दृष्टिकोण राख्ने अराजकतावादी धार, वर्गसङ्घर्षको पक्षधर मार्क्सवादी चिन्तन, कानूनको शासन, प्रजातन्त्र र संविधानवादलाई आत्मसात् गर्दै अगाडि बढ्ने लोकतान्त्रिक धारर अस्थिरताबाट फाइदा लुट्न पल्केको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय तत्वबीच टक्कर छ। नेपालमा पनि आज यिनै चतुर्भुज मान्यताबीच द्वन्द्व छ। बृहत् शान्तिप्रक्रिया अशान्त हुँदै जानुको कारण यही हो।

नयाँ संविधान जारी हुने दिन अर्थात् १४ जेठ आम नेपालीका लागि एउटा दिवास्वप्न हुँदै इतिहासबाट बिदा भएको छ। त्यो दिन नेपालको सार्वभौम संविधानसभाले न संविधान दिन सक्यो, न त भविष्यमा बन्ने संविधान प्रजातान्त्रिक परम्परामै बन्नेछ भन्ने प्रत्याभूति। अन्तरिम संविधान-२०६३ को आठौँ संशोधन गर्ने कुरामा सरकार र प्रतिपक्षी एनेकपा मावादीबीच मुख मिलेपछि अन्ततः मध्यरातमा संविधानसभाको आयु भने एक वर्षको लागि थपिएको छ। ठूला राजनीतिक दलहरूबीच शक्तिसन्तुलनका कुरामा मोलतोल मिलेपछि म्याद त थपियो, तर यसपटक पनि दुइटा प्रश्न चाहिँ अनुत्तरित नै छन्― के थपिएको अवधिमा अन्तरिम संविधानमा अपेक्षा गरिएबमोजिम नयाँ संविधान बन्छ? बन्यो भने के त्यो प्रजातन्त्र तथा संविधानवादको विश्वव्यापी मर्यादामै आधारित भएर आउँछ?

अराजकवादका पिता भनिने फ्रान्सेली राजनीतिज्ञ पियार जोसेप प्रोधोँका मान्यताका पक्षधरहरू नेपालमा पनि छन्। प्रोधोँलाई कानून व्यवस्था वा सरकारमा विश्वास थिएन। उनले एउटा बहुचर्चित किताब पनि लेखेका थिए। त्यसको नाम थियो― द कन्फेसन्स् अफ अ रिभोल्युसनरी अर्थात् एउटा क्रान्तिकारीको साविती बयान। त्यो साविती बयानमा लेखिएको थियो, “क्रान्तिलाई हिंसा, रक्तपात, लुटपाट र मारामारको अर्थमा प्रयोग गर्ने जमातले संसारलाई उँभो लगाउन सक्ने छैन।” आफू अराजकतावादी भए पनि त्यस्तो परिपाटीको उनी भर्त्सना गर्दथे।

अठारौँ शताब्दीका यी दार्शनिक र द्वन्द्वात्मक भौतिकवादका व्याख्याता कार्ल मार्क्सबीच भनाभन भई बोलचालै बन्द भयो। मौलिक अधिकार र स्वतन्त्रताप्रति अतिवादी दृष्टिकोण राख्ने प्रोधोँ र यसलाई वर्ग सङ्घर्षको दृष्टिले प्रयोग गर्ने मार्क्सबीच मिलनबिन्दु पाउन गाह्रो थियो। यसलाई दोस्रो धार मान्न सकिन्छ। समसामयिक विश्वमा एउटा तेस्रो धार छ― कानूनको शासन, प्रजातन्त्र र संविधानवादलाई आत्मसात् गर्दै अगाडि बढ्ने लोकतान्त्रिक धार। चौथो धार हो― अस्थिरताबाट फाइदा लुट्न पल्केको अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय तत्व। ऊ सबैका साथमा हुन्छ र अन्तिममा फाइदा पनि उसैले लिन्छ। नेपालमा आज पनि यिनै चतुर्भुज मान्यताहरूबीच द्वन्द्व छ। बृहत् शान्तिप्रक्रिया अशान्त हुँदै जानुको कारण यही हो।

अन्तरिम संविधान जारी हुनुअघि र पछिका राजनीतिक घटनाक्रमहरू अब नेपाली मानसपटलबाट क्रमशः हराउँदै छन्। दोस्रो जनआन्दोलनका कर्ता तथा व्याख्याताहरू पनि पन्छिँदै गएका छन्। जनस्तरमा पनि यसको उपलब्धिबारे चर्चा हुन छाडेको छ। यति छोटो अवधिमै गणतन्त्र दिवसबारे कतै उत्साह देखिएन। धेरैलाई परिवर्तनको कार्यसूची र स्थिति कुनै एउटाको नियन्त्रणमा छैनभन्ने लाग्न थालेको छ। समाधान गर्नुपर्ने राजनीतिक समस्या धेरै छन्। धेरै काम भएका पनि छन्, तर तिनलाई टुङ्ग्याउन अझ् मेहनत नगरी हुँदैन।

समयाभावलाई दृष्टिगत गरेर अपेक्षा बमोजिम संविधान घोषणा गर्ने एउटा सरल विकल्प थियो। नेताहरूले राजनीतिक रूपमा धान्न सकिने गरी संविधानसभामा उठेका गम्भीर विषयहरू तत्काल छिनोफानो गरेर एउटा भविष्यमुखी सङ्क्षिप्त संरचनाको संविधान (फ्रेमवर्क कन्स्टिट्युसन) जारी गरेर संविधानसभालाई १४ जेठभित्रै सुखान्तमा परिणत गर्न सक्थे। यसलाई मस्यौदा गर्न धेरै समय लाग्ने थिएन। यसबाट मुलुकलाई अगाडि बढ्न गहकिलो राजनीतिक पूँजी प्राप्त हुनेथियो। परिवर्तनका वाहकहरूलाई आफ्नो वर्चस्व कायम राख्न गाह्रो हुने थिएन। तर यसमा पनि माथिकै चारवटा धारबीचको अन्तरविरोध तगारो भयो। शान्तिसम्झ्ौताको मूल उद्देश्य राजतन्त्र हटाएर संविधानसभाको माध्यमबाट सबैलाई मान्य हुने प्रजातान्त्रिक प्रणाली ल्याउनु थियो। तर, यसलाई सबैले आ-आफ्ना उद्देश्यका लागि मात्र प्रयोग गरे।

दुई वर्षभित्रै संविधान निर्माण गर्ने कार्यादेश संशोधन गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि बढाउन सकिने स्पष्ट संवैधानिक आधार अन्तरिम संविधानमा थिएन। मुलुकमा धेरै छलफल भइसकेको अन्तरिम संविधानको धारा ६४ मस्यौदा गर्दा सम्बन्धित कसैबाट पनि त्यस्तो उद्देश्य राखिएको कुरा चर्चामा आएको पनि देखिँदैन। रणनीतिक हिसाबले पनि त्यस रूपमा सोचिएको कतैबाट स्पष्ट हुँदैन। तर, राजनीतिक नेतृत्वको अक्षमता र लोकतान्त्रिक प्रक्रियाप्रति मावादीको अस्पष्ट धारणाका कारण मुलुकमा बेथितिहरू बढ्दै जाँदा धान्न सकिने प्रजातान्त्रिक प्रणाली स्थापनातर्फ चाहिए जति मेहनत भएन। तथापि सङ्क्रमणकालको गुम्न सक्ने वैधतालाई स्थायित्व दिन संविधान संशोधन गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि बढाउनुभन्दा सजिलो अर्को उपाय बाँकी रहेको थिएन। यस्तो परिस्थितिमा विवादास्पद रूपमै भए पनि संविधानको आठौँ संशोधनद्वारा संविधानसभाको आयु बढाउने काम भएको छ।

सङ्कटकाल घोषणा गरी संविधानको धारा-६४ बमोजिम संविधानसभाको आयु ६ महिनाका लागि थप गर्ने विकल्प नेपालको सार्वभौमसत्ता, अखण्डता वा कुनै भागको सुरक्षामा युद्ध, बाह्य आक्रमण, सशस्त्र विद्रोह वा चरम आर्थिक विशृङ्खलताको कारणले गम्भीर सङ्कट उत्पन्न भएको अवस्थामा मात्र प्रयोग गर्न सकिन्थ्यो। मन्त्रिपरिषद्को सिफारिसमा राष्ट्रपतिले सङ्कटकालीन अवस्था घोषणा गर्न सक्ने भए पनि त्यस्तो घोषणालाई संविधानसभाको दुईतिहाई समर्थन नभए एक महिनापछि स्वतः निष्त्रि्कय हुने व्यवस्था संविधानमै उल्लेख छ। यस्तो अवस्थामा सङ्कटकालको स्थिति नै नभई सङ्कटकाल लगाउने प्रक्रिया संविधानउपरको जालसाजीका रूपमा इतिहासमा दर्ता हुन सक्थ्यो। आठौँ संशोधनका कारण यो अभियोगबाट मुलुक बचेको छ।

तर, त्यस्तो जालसाजी नभए तापनि जुन नजिर कायम भएको छ त्यो प्रत्युत्पादक हुने खतरा छ। संविधानको आठौँ संशोधनले एउटा वैधानिक सरकारलाई संविधानसभा बचाउने नाममा अवैधानिक तरिकाले विलुप्त पार्न लागेको छ। राजनीतिक प्रक्रियामा सरकार आउनु-जानु भइरहन्छ। तर, संसदीय बहुमत कायम हुँदाहुँदै सडक आन्दोलन र प्रतिपक्षको गैर-संवैधानिक हठबाट सरकार परिवर्तन गराउन सकिने नजिर कायम हुँदैछ― नयाँ नेपालमा। सरकारबाट बिदा हुने शर्तमा गराइएको यो संसदीय प्रक्रिया सडक राजनीतिको मातहतमा लादिएको छ। समस्या बूढी मरिन् भन्ने होइन, काल पल्केला भन्ने हो। यसर्थ अहिलेको राष्ट्रिय सहमति लाई संवैधानिक र प्रजातान्त्रिक हिसाबले धेरै कमजोर धरातलमा उभिएको मान्नै पर्दछ।

अर्कोतर्फ नयाँ संविधान जारी नभएको अवस्थामा संविधान संशोधन पनि नभएको हुँदो हो त पुनर्स्थापित प्रतिनिधिसभाबाट जारी गरिएको नेपालको अन्तरिम संविधान-२०६३ का व्यवस्थाहरूमा संविधानसभा, विषयगत समिति, प्रक्रियागत समितिलगायत सबै संयन्त्रका अस्तित्व समाप्त हुनेथियो। संविधान निर्माण गर्ने सभाको वैधानिक हैसियत जान्थ्यो। यसैगरी, अन्तरिम संविधानमा संविधान घोषणा भएको अवस्थामा मात्र संविधानसभाले व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्को हैसियत पाउने उल्लेख गरिएकाले व्यवस्थापिका-संसद् पनि कायम रहने थिएन। व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्को अस्तित्व समाप्त भए पनि वैधानिक सरकार भने कायम रहने थियोतर, यसको हैसियत कामचलाउ वा केयरटेकर जस्तो हुनेथियो। मह140वपूर्ण निर्णय गर्ने वैधानिक हैसियत हुने थिएन।

व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्को अभावमा सबै संवैधानिक प्रक्रियाहरू प्रभावित हुनेथिए। राजस्व र व्ययको अनुमान, बजेट समीक्षा, विनियोजन ऐन पारित गर्नेलगायतका सबै कुरा जाने थिए। वैधानिक प्रतिपक्ष नै नरहेपछि प्रजातन्त्रको गुणस्तरको कुरै हराउँथ्यो। १४ जेठअघि वा पछि सङ्कटकालीन अधिकारको घोषणा वैध रूपमा एक महिनाभन्दा बढी गर्न सकिने थिएन। यो मन्त्रिपरिषद्को सिफारिसमा राष्ट्रपतिले गर्न सक्ने भए पनि संविधानसभा र व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्को अस्तित्व नरहँदा त्यसलाई एक महिनाभित्र व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्को बैठकमा पेश गर्न सम्भव हुने थिएन। त्यस्तो अवस्थामा त्यो घोषणा एक महिनापछि स्वतः रद्द हुनेथियो। संविधानको धारा-३६(ग) बमोजिम राष्ट्रपतिको पदावधि संविधानसभाबाट जारी हुने संविधान प्रारम्भ नभएसम्म लागू हुने भनिएकाले अर्को संविधान नआएसम्म राष्ट्रपति कायम त रहने थिए, तर निजलाई निर्वाचित गर्ने व्यवस्थापिका-संसद् नहुँदाको अवस्थाले पद र हैसियत दुवै प्रभावित हुन्थ्यो।

यस्तो संवैधानिक शून्यतामा जनमतसङ्ग्रहबाट निकास खोज्न पनि सम्भव हुने थिएन। किनकि त्यस्तो निर्णय व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्ले नै अनुमोदन गर्नुपर्ने हुन्थ्यो। त्यसैगरी, कामचलाउ सरकारको सिफारिसमा बाधाअड्काउ फुकाउने राष्ट्रपतिको अधिकार प्रयोग हुनसक्ने भए तापनि यसलाई एक महिनाभित्र व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्बाट अनुमोदन गराउनुपर्ने हुँदा यो बाटो पनि बन्द हुनेथियो। यी सबै अप्ठ्याराहरूमाझ् अन्तरिम संविधान कायमै रहेपछि निर्वाचित प्रतिनिधिहरूको अभावमा यसले कानूनको शासन र संविधानवादको प्रत्याभूति दिनसक्ने थिएन।

संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि समाप्त हुनासाथ मुलुक दुई वर्षअघिदेखिको यथास्थितिमा नरहनु यस्तो परिस्थितिको एउटै टड्कारो परिणति हुन्थ्यो। संविधान बनाउन २८ चैत २०६४ मा भएको निर्वाचनले अहिलेको संविधानसभालाई दिएको कार्यादेश फिर्ता हुनेथियो। म्यादभित्र नयाँ संविधान नबन्दा र संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि पनि नथप्दा कसरी अगाडि बढ्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमा संविधान स्पष्ट नभएकाले शासकीय निर्णयहरू राजनीतिक आधारमा हुन जान्थे। वर्तमान संविधानले द्विविधा भएको अवस्थामा सर्वोच्च अदालतबाट राय माग्ने पुरानो संवैधानिक परम्पराको पनि अन्त्य गरिसकेको हुनेथियो। यी सबै यथार्थहरूले संवैधानिक संयन्त्र असफल भएको पुष्टि गर्ने थियो।

त्यस्तो परिस्थितिमा शक्तिसन्तुलनका घटकहरूले चाहे पनि नचाहे पनि अवरुद्ध संवैधानिक संयन्त्रलाई सहज बनाउन नयाँ कार्यादेशका लागि अर्को आमचुनाव गराउनुको विकल्प रहने थिएन। तर त्यस्तो चुनाव पनि संविधान संशोधन नगरी वैधानिक तरिकाले सम्भव हुने थिएन। वर्तमान संविधानले दोस्रो पटक आमचुनाव हुनसक्ने प्रावधान उल्लेख नगरेको अवस्थामा कुनै वैध निकास निस्कन नसक्ने यस्तो परिस्थितिबाट स्पष्ट रूपमा मुलुकमा संवैधानिक सङ्कट हुने अवस्थालाई कसैले रोक्न सक्ने थिएन। उपरोक्त संवैधानिक सङ्कटसँगै मुलुकले आन्तरिक सुरक्षा चुनौतीहरू पनि सामना गर्नुपर्ने थियो।

कतिपयले संविधान संशोधन नभए १४ जेठपछि संविधानसभा निष्त्रि्कय मात्र हुने र संविधान संशोधन गरिसकेपछि पुनः सक्रिय हुने दृष्टिकोण पनि राखेको पाइयो। यस्तो तर्कको कुनै संवैधानिक आधार भने थिएन। चुनावबाट स्थापित निकायहरू निश्चित अवधिका लागि हुने हुँदा त्यो अवधि समाप्त भएपछि स्वतः समाप्त हुनुको विकल्प रहँदैन। विघटित संसद्लाई सडक आन्दोलनबाट बलमिच्याइँका साथ पुनर्स्थापित गरिएको सन्दर्भमा यस्तो तर्क आउनु अस्वाभाविक भने थिएन। तर यो प्रक्रिया घोर गैरसंवैधानिक हुन्छ।

कतिपय आमसञ्चारमाध्यम वा कार्यक्रमहरूमा राजनीतिक रूपमा अतिवादी दृष्टिकोणहरू देखिँदै आएका थिए। अघिल्लो महिना मावादीको हडताल स्थगित नभएको भए त्यसले राजनीतिक धु्रवीकरणको प्रक्रियालाई अझ् बल पुर्‍याउने थियो। खासगरी सर्वसाधारणलाई अत्याउने खालका गतिविधिबाटै हतियार प्रयोगसम्मको स्थितिको आउने भएकाले १४ जेठपछिको शान्तिसुरक्षासम्बन्धी चुनौतीका लागि सुरक्षा संयन्त्रलाई तयार राख्नुपर्ने हुन्थ्यो। कुरा सुरक्षा निकाय परिचालनको मात्र थिएन। खानेपानी, खाद्यान्न, खतीमूलो, तेल आपूर्ति, सार्वजनिक आवागमनलाई सुचारु राख्नुपर्ने आदि जिम्मेवारीबाट सरकार विमुख हुनसक्ने थिएन। तर, व्यवस्थापिका-संसद् नरहेको स्थितिमा कुनै पनि सरकारले सङ्कटको सामना गर्दा आफूलाई संवैधानिक परिधिभित्र सीमित पार्न गाह्रो हुने कुरा प्रस्टै छ।

यस्तो राजनीतिक परिस्थितिले राष्ट्रपतिलाई पनि संवैधानिक भएर बस्ने वातावरण दिने थिएन। संवैधानिक शून्यतामा सहजकर्ताका रूपमा राष्ट्रपतिको भूमिका स्वतः देखापर्ने थियो। संविधान संशोधन गरेर अगाडि नबढ्दाको स्थितिमा राष्ट्रपतिलाई रोक्न गाह्रो हुनेथियो। किनकि, त्यो स्थितिमा राष्ट्रपतिको जिम्मेवारी स्वतः बढ्ने थियो। आफ्नो राजनीतिक हैसियत गुम्दै जाँदा कामचलाउ सरकारले पनि राष्ट्राध्यक्षको सहयोगमा अगाडि बढ्नुको विकल्प हुने थिएन। संवैधानिक शून्यताको स्थितिमा निर्वाचन गराई निर्वाचित सरकारले शपथ ग्रहण नगर्दासम्म र शपथ ग्रहण भइसकेपछि नयाँ व्यवस्थापिका-संसद्बाट संविधान संशोधन नहुन्जेलसम्म संवैधानिक दुष्चक्र (भिसियस सर्कल अफ अनकन्स्टिट्युस्नालिटी) को जोखिम टाउकामाथि घुमिरहने यथार्थ प्रस्टै छ।

अत्यधिक अस्थिरता वा प्रजातान्त्रिक प्रक्रियाले निकास दिन नसक्दा गत दुई शताब्दीमा संसारभरि अधिनायकवादी व्यवस्थाहरू च्याउसरी उमि्रए। संसारमा तानाशाहका विभिन्न रुप छन्। हरेक तानाशाह आफ्नो समयको उपज हुन्छ। तानशाह अचानक जन्मदैन बरु वैध शक्तिको कमि-कमजोरीहरूबाट त्यसको आवश्यकता गहिरोसँग सृजना हुँदै गएको हुन्छ। युरोपमा देखापरेको फासीवादी वा साम्यवादी अधिनायकवादबाट मात्र होइन एसिया र ल्याटिन अमेरिकी मुलुकहरूले भोगेको सैनिक वा आदर्शवादी तानाशाही व्यवस्थाबाट पनि बुझ्िने कुरा यही हो। सैद्धान्तिक रूपमा शुरुमा को, कुन कित्तामा उभिएको थियो भन्ने विषय कालान्तरमा गौण हुँदै जान्छ। सबैजसो अधिनायकवाद अस्थिरताको फाइदा उठाउँदै आएको इतिहासले देखाउँछ। बर्मादेखि अफगानिस्तानसम्म, चीनदेखि श्रीलङ्कासम्म अधिनायकवादी शासनको उत्थान र पतन सबैले देखिआएकै हो। नेपाललाई यो सम्भावनाबाट बचाउनु सबै राजनीतिक शक्तिहरूको जिम्मेवारी थियो।

मुलुकको सामर्थ्य र योग्यतालाई बुझने प्रयासै नगरी भइरहेको नेपालको परिवर्तन निःसन्देह रूपमा एउटा कठिन मोडमा आएको छ। तर, सम्भावनाको कुरा गर्दा सबैभन्दा सहज र सरल उपाय अहिले पनि राष्ट्रिय सहमति र सहकार्य नै हो। अराजकतावाद सभ्य समाजको आधार हुन सक्दैन। त्यस्तै, वर्ग सङ्घर्षको दृष्टिकोणले मात्र हेरियो भने पनि प्रजातान्त्रिक मूल्यमान्यताहरू स्थापित हुन सक्तैनन्। नेपाली राजनीतिकर्मीहरू देश र जनताप्रति प्रतिबद्ध नभएसम्म यो मुलुकलाई क्रमशः औपनिवेशीकरण गर्दै लैजाने तत्वले आफूलाई कमजोर पाउने छैनन्।

संविधानको आठौँ संशोधनले मुलुकमा सृजना हुनसक्ने धेरै विषम परिस्थितिहरू अहिलेलाई टारेको छ। जानेर वा नजानेर भइरहेका परिवर्तनहरूलाई प्रजातन्त्र र राष्ट्रवादतर्फ मोड्न सरकारले मावादीसँग गरेको बृहत् शान्तिसम्झ्ौता र मावादीले संवैधानिक प्रजातन्त्र तथा मानवअधिकारतर्फ आफ्नो प्रतिबद्धतालाई प्रस्ट गर्ने हो भने मुलुकको शासन कसले चलाएको छ भन्ने विषय गौण हो। खासगरी दुई वर्षको अनुभवका आधारमा मावादीबाट पूरा हुन नसकेका प्रतिबद्धताहरूका सम्बन्धमा पुनः सम्झ्ौता गरी सबैभन्दा ठूलो पार्टीका रूपमा उसलाई सरकार चलाउने अवसर र संविधानसभालाई सुखान्तमा परिणत गराउने राजनीतिक जिम्मेवारी दिनु नराम्रो होइन।

निश्चित रूपमा प्रजातन्त्रवादीहरू मावादीको प्रतिपक्षविहीन शासकीय स्वरुप, जातीय सङ्घीयता र संसद्मुखी न्यायपालिकाको अवधारणाप्रति सन्देह राख्दछन्। त्यस्तै राष्ट्रिय सहमतिबमोजिम नै लडाकूहरूको व्यवस्थापन हुनुपर्ने विषयमा पनि मावादीहरू संवेदनशील हुनु जरुरी छ। अहिलेको समय भनेको सन्देह र त्यसका आधारहरूको छिनोफानो गर्ने समय हो।

सो हुनसके संविधानसभाको बाँकी अवधिका लागि मावादीको नेतृत्वप्रति कसैको गुनासो रहने छैन। उनीहरूको सहभागिताले संविधानसभालाई संवैधानिक निकाससहित वैध रूपमा अगाडि बढ्न बल पुर्‍याउनेछ। तर दुर्भाग्य के हो भने अहिलेको सहमति पनि शक्ति-सन्तुलनका लागि भएको छ, मुलुकलाई एउटा प्रजातान्त्रिक तथा संवैधानिक मर्यादामा आधारित संविधान दिन होइन। आमजनताले प्रजातन्त्र र संविधानवादको लडाइँ लड्नुपर्ने अहिलेको विवशतालाई संविधानसभाको नयाँ कार्यावधिभित्र निराकरण गर्न सक्नुपर्छ। त्यसो हुन नसके थपिएको समयमा पनि नयाँ संविधान घोषणा हुने छैन। मुलुकको राजनीतिक स्थिरता अझ् क्षीण हुँदै जानेछ।

संविधानसभाबाट नयाँ संविधान आएको हेर्न नेपाली जनताको चाहना केन्याली जनताको जस्तै अपुरो भई सधैँका लागि थन्किने सम्भावना पनि प्रशस्त छ। नयाँ संविधानका लागि सन् २००२ देखि लागेका केन्यालीहरूको प्रयास अन्ततः एउटा संविधानसभा (कन्स्टिट्युस्नल कन्फेरेन्स) बाट बनाइएको संविधानलाई जनमतसङ्ग्रहको साधारण बहुमतले अनुमोदन गर्न नसकेपछि दुखान्तमा परिणत भएको थियो। त्यसपछि केन्याली संविधान बनाउने अभिभारा एउटा विशेषज्ञ समितिले पायो जुन नेपालमा २०४७ को संविधान मस्यौदा गर्ने विश्वनाथ उपाध्याय नेतृत्वको आयोग जस्तै हो। केन्याली विशेषज्ञ समितिले तयार गरेको मस्यौदा जनमतसङ्ग्रहमा पठाउनका लागि संसद्ले अनुमोदन गरिसकेको छ। अहिले जनस्तरमा छलफल गरिँदैछ। त्यसबारे आगामी साउनमा हुने जनमतसङ्ग्रहमा केन्याली जनताले निर्णय गर्नेछन्, मस्यौदा संविधान स्वीकार्य छ कि छैन भनेर। लामो समय विवादमा अल्झ्िएको संविधानसभाले संविधान बनाउने विश्वास केन्याली जनतालाई भएन।

नेपालको पनि नियति यही त होइन? होइन भने, राजनीतिक दलहरूसँग आफूलाई प्रजातान्त्रिक र राष्ट्रवादी प्रतिबद्धताहरूमा सच्याउनुको विकल्प छैन।

Credibility at stake

The position of prime minister in the model of democracy that Nepal is practicing is no longer powerful and exulted. He does have many powers, as far as theory goes, but he can exercise them only upon the aid and advice of others, seen or unseen in the formal structure of the state. In a way, the executive prime minister of Nepal has long become a ceremonial prime minister. The revolutionary change in his status has gone largely unnoticed.

BIPIN ADHIKARI


http://www.ekantipur.com/2010/06/06/oped/credibility-at-stake/315824/

The position of prime minister in the model of democracy that Nepal is practicing is no longer powerful and exulted. He does have many powers, as far as theory goes, but he can exercise them only upon the aid and advice of others, seen or unseen in the formal structure of the state. In a way, the executive prime minister of Nepal has long become a ceremonial prime minister. The revolutionary change in his status has gone largely unnoticed.

The recent helplessness of the prime minister is a new case in point. The winter session of the legislature has been put off, while the demand for his resignation is still unsettled. The parties in the House were allowed to discuss his fate, but he was not called to cut short the discussion and register a confidence motion to show whether he deserves continuation or needs to resign as somebody who does not command the confidence of his electors.

The question is how could a system of government, where the principal executive of the country has been deliberately kept at such a low ebb in the power structure, guarantee a functioning democracy, not to mention adoption of a new constitution. Unfortunately, the party bosses of the present coalition have underscored how educative the Article 55A process must have been to the people as to the demand for the prime minister’s resignation amid the current political wrangling and its legitimacy.

Instead, the prime minister has been put on hold. He is under a bond to resign no sooner than there is a consensus between major parties clearing the way for another national government. The consensus seems to be elusive because all the considerations that are involved in the negotiations are not on the table. For the purpose of the ongoing transition, it hardly matters whether the UCPN (Maoist) runs the government or one of the present coalition partners, or the government of Madhav Kumar Nepal, with or without any reshuffle.

The major issue is whether there is a guarantee that that Constituent Assembly is going to produce a “democratic” constitution based on civilised parameters, and whether such a constitution is designed to protect Nepal’s independence and its national interest. This concern must not be evaded in the process. Yet, that is not the concern anymore.

The term of the CA has been extended for one additional year without really putting this issue on the table, and making it a significant item on the agenda. There was not even a debate whether it needs a one-year extension, or a three-month or six-month extension. While the Maoists did not have any particular proposal, the Nepali Congress had proposed only a six-month extension. The fact, however, remains that even the government had no position in this matter. When CA Chairperson Subas C. Nembang strongly pressured the prime minister to lodge the constitutional amendment bill by May 16, the government agreed to do it. The move was intended to allow sufficient time for in-house procedures, should there be a decision to extend the life of the CA, based on any forthcoming consensus between the parties. The one-year extension was just the proposition of the legal draftsmen who worked on the draft bill, knowing that there could be pressure to reduce the term. Not even the UML had cleared it as proposed.

Be that as it may, there is no controversy that CPN-UML leader K.P. Oli (acting on behalf of the coalition partners) had agreed to the resignation of the prime minister within five days at the time when the three-point understanding was signed between his party, the Maoists and the Nepali Congress at midnight of May 28. Unprincipled though it was to sign such an indenture without sorting out the crucial issues of divergence between the present coalition and the Maoists, it is the truth that the resignation of the prime minister was negotiated in the same spirit in which the Maoist leaders have been claiming it now. There could be questions on whether an understanding on this particular issue should have been sought or not. But the attempt to back out from the understanding, so cleanly worked out, does not help the credibility of the political parties and their ability to bring changes.

Quite the contrary, after some initial hesitation, the UML has now concluded that the prime minister does not have to quit unless the parties arrive at a consensus on implementation of past agreements on the peace process and constitution drafting. It was said that the first point of the three-point understanding, which is about implementing past agreements, and the third point on immediate resignation of the prime minister should be implemented simultaneously. Additionally, some UML and Nepali Congress leaders have said that there was no such understanding, and that there should be an agreement on integration of Maoist combatants, return of properties seized during the insurgency and dismantling of the paramilitary structure of the Young Communist League (YCL) before the prime minister resigns. Maybe these arguments have elements of truth, but the understanding signed between the major parties unconditionally states that the prime minister shall resign. No arguments can vitiate what has been written in black and white.

It is not clear what loss the present coalition would suffer if the prime minister resigns as agreed. Such a resignation does not mean that the leader of the opposition is going to form a government at once. As long as the coalition is intact, the opposition cannot make any dent in the current balance of power. Rather, such a resignation would fulfill the main Maoist demand at the moment. It would then be their turn to implement what they had agreed on through the three-point understanding. Such an arrangement would allow the government to continue as a “caretaker” and also create the political environment for forward progress.

A caretaker government can continue performing the rudimentary duties of the state (including maintaining law and order and ensuring that its machinery continues to function so that the day-to-day task of administration can be carried out). It cannot remain in that capacity for more than a reasonable period. But this environment will help the major parties to work on compromise solutions. If the remaining part of the three-point understanding is not honestly implemented, the government can always activate the constitutional process and reclaim its lost status as a full-fledged government. It is not clear why this straight constitutional way out is being ignored by the government and its coalition partners.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

D-Day minus four

Bipin Adhikari

http://www.ekantipur.com/the-kathmandu-post/2010/05/23/oped/d-day-minus-four/208611/

MAY 23 - May 28 is quite close. The long awaited day when the new constitution of Nepal was expected to be promulgated is about to pass without any constitution being adopted and promulgated. This is not a serious concern at the moment though. The serious concern is that even the Constituent Assembly is going to expire on May 28 — leaving its unfinished business in the sands of history.

Lack of consensus between the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) and the governing coalition is preventing the CA from even amending the constitution — extending its timeframe for another mutually agreed duration.

While negotiations are going on between contending parties, the fear among the people as to the situation that will unfold after May 28 is not baseless. After this day, the CA and all decision making structures within the assembly will cease to exist. The country’s legislature, which has been conceived as the tail, cannot continue to exist in the absence of the head — the CA. A scenario where the legislature has already disappeared will create several constitutional hiccups including in the system of validating the national budget, passing the Appropriation Act and raising taxes and approving expenditures.

The constitutional functionaries will gradually become defunct in the absence of appointing and monitoring bodies including the Constitutional Council. The government of the day, in the absence of a functioning legislature, will automatically become a “caretaker’ government”— not supposed to take major decisions affecting public policies. The president, who is supposed to continue till a new constitution is promulgated, will be under pressure of the constitutional vacuum that comes to exist in the country. Although the constitution will continue to operate, its status will change to that of a lame duck.

There are some leaders who have spoken of general elections for a new mandate from the people after May 28. Unfortunately, the Interim Constitution does not provide for any such election. It never conceived of the failure of the CA to deliver a new constitution and end the transitional arrangement with a full fledged constitutional system. It simply does not authorize any general elections, even as an exceptional or emergency arrangement. Should it be pursued any further, the Constitution must be amended before May 28 created enabling provisions. This is not going to happen so easily. Had it been easier to strike a compromise between the ruling coalition and the Maoist opposition, thereby creating a two-thirds majority in the house, such a problem would never have come up. Apparently, the transition has come to a dead end.

In such a situation, as has happened all through these years ever since 2002, the politicians, either as a consensual force or as a partisan group, will prevail over the fate of the nation and the concept of the rule of law in whatever amount it still survives. Again, Article 158 (the power to remove difficulties) will be invoked. If not, some lawyers will not hesitate to advise the government to declare a state of emergency before the May 28 deadline, and then subsequently extend the tenure of the house for six months by a resolution. The media has already reported a couple of opinions that the “constitutional crisis” itself is enough grounds for imposition of a national emergency. Although this concept will be difficult to sell to a court of law, under Article 143 of the Constitution, there are apparently many politicians around who would be happy with that interpretation. Even if one of these two options is tried, the nerve of the knowledgeable politicians will go down when they find that both these options need the approval of the legislature no sooner than the euphoria it creates dies down.

Additionally, there is also loose talk in town that the CA will continue to exist even after May 28; but in that case, it will remain inoperative until a mutually agreed arrangement is in place, and the Interim Constitution is amended to give effect to them. People championing this way out should perhaps think why Article 64 states that the tenure of the CA is two years. This is complete nonsense.

What this situation means to the political scenario is then very clear. The logic of rebellion will be invoked once again. Several rounds of decisions will again be made, keeping the people off from the political process. Most of these decisions will affect the quality of governance and the national interest of this poor country. Since it has happened in the past in a way that has surprised most serious people, there is no reason to believe that it will not be repeated.

This unfortunate situation must not come. It will not help anybody including the Maoists. In a way, democracy and the rule of law is much more necessary to a rebellious force of the country than others playing safe politics. All civic arrangements are doomed to fail if democracy is not the destiny of political groups. From a human and historical vantage point, Maoist people’s wars have been disasters everywhere. There is no reason why this disaster should continue to haunt the people of Nepal.

The ongoing warlike situation is due to the limited ability to fight a war. As far as the issue of integration of the combatants is concerned, this should be the responsibility of the state to be exercised in a way that furthers the prospects of peace and easy democratic landing for the Maoists. Of course, their claim to the leadership of the national government, if that comes through, should be promptly taken positively. There should, however, be a guarantee that democracy (in the civilized Western parameters) should not be tampered with when drafting the new constitution. The fight is over with this.

It is said that the Anglo-Zanzibar war of 1896 was fought for only 45 minutes. It holds the record of being the shortest war in the recorded history of the world, yet it achieved its objective. A change of strategy can help the Constitution be amended within the next four days leading to the least dangerous exit point for the remaining constitution writing job. The rest is decided in a democracy by the people, who hardly join the streets.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

"Mauled by the mob" -

Building on his theme of clash of civilisations, Huntington wrote that current global politics should be understood as the result of deep-seated conflicts between great cultures and religions of the world. The unifying drive for order that had been at the center of Huntington’s analysis of the cold war now gave way to a dark vision of a world irreconcilably divided along radically different civilisations with fundamentally divergent values — more specifically those of the secular West and the Islamic world. For many, this perspective created a context for that conflict. All other issues fell in the margins. His thesis acquired something like a prophetic authority. Yet, the cold war has not gone even though Huntington is no more to see it through his Eurocentric prism. It is not cultures that are at loggerheads here. It is the determination of the people to practice democracy that is being assailed.

KATHMANDU, MAY 05, 2010
Bipin Adhikari


Back to April 24, 2006 — the date has historical importance. If an unruly mass of people, ignoring the rule of law and the constitution, can force the reinstatement of the parliament which had long been dissolved, can’t a similar protest pull the government down when it is not possible to do so from within parliament? After all, if the rule of law, or the constitution for that matter, can be compromised for the Seven-Party Alliance (SPA), why cannot it be compromised for the UCPN (Maoist)? The problem is old although the example is new.

When the Maoist demonstrators were passing by Setopul towards Old Baneshwor yesterday, the slogan they were chanting was “Yaspaliko haija Makune lai laija” (may the cholera epidemic this year take away Madhav Kumar Nepal for good (and, consequently, create space for the Maoists).

As it happens in this poor country, whenever there is an outbreak of cholera, it does not just claim the life of one such individual; but hundreds. Whether it is cholera or Nepal “closure” — the effect is the same on the common people. Yet, that did not matter to the people in the Maoist march-past. In order to pull down the prime minister, they have almost paralysed the whole country and made the life of the common people miserable. The claim is that no matter what the constitution says, the Maoists must be allowed to form a national government and draft a constitution that promotes their line of thought. The ground for such a claim is that they can garner the support of a few thousand people against the lawful government and demonstrate in the city in frightening ways.

Both the claim and the grounds are bizarre in a culture that supports the rule of law and constitutional democracy. Harvard political theorist Samuel Huntington, who passed away in December 2008, was crucial in helping shape modern views on so many important issues of the last five decades or so including civilian-military relations, political development, comparative government and what he described as the global clash of cultures in his famous 1996 book. It is strange that this type of phenomenon did not come to his analysis.

Building on his theme of clash of civilisations, Huntington wrote that current global politics should be understood as the result of deep-seated conflicts between great cultures and religions of the world. The unifying drive for order that had been at the center of Huntington’s analysis of the cold war now gave way to a dark vision of a world irreconcilably divided along radically different civilisations with fundamentally divergent values — more specifically those of the secular West and the Islamic world. For many, this perspective created a context for that conflict. All other issues fell in the margins. His thesis acquired something like a prophetic authority.

Yet, the cold war has not gone even though Huntington is no more to see it through his Eurocentric prism. It is not cultures that are at loggerheads here. It is the determination of the people to practice democracy that is being assailed. Nepal is still a parliamentary democracy in which the government (the executive) must be supported, or at least tolerated, by parliament, if it is to sustain. By definition, then, a government must remain tolerated by an absolute majority (50 + 1 percent) of the members of parliament. If an absolute majority actively opposes a government (i.e., it is willing to vote to remove it from power), then it will have to resign. The Maoists have not been able to garner an absolute majority in parliament and move a no-confidence motion in order to pull the government down. Yet, they want to do it by methods which are not constitutional.

Responding to the situation, a civil society group led by senior journalist Kanak Dixit issued a timely press release yesterday: “This general strike imposed by the UCPN (Maoist) is destroying the national economy even as millions of students are kept from attending school and college. The livelihoods of the peasantry have been affected countrywide. Those relying on daily wage labour to keep the family fed are confronted with a crisis. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of young adults have been trapped in a campaign based on violence and anarchy. We believe this attempt to take a society in transition towards confrontation can only increase the country’s vulnerability to foreign forces.”

It categorically highlighted, “The Interim Constitution of Nepal is itself a document representing consensus and cooperation, and the Maoist party must seek response to its demands within the bounds of this document. We, therefore, appeal to the UCPN (Maoist) to end its general strike and return to the Legislative Parliament. As the largest party in the House, we urge the UCPN (Maoist) to re-engage in the task of constitution-writing. We also appeal to the Maoists to abide by the six-point understanding reached at the High Level Political Mechanism of the three largest parties.”

There is little more to be said on the ongoing Maoist movement than that. But what is even more important on the part of civil society is the consistent determination to fight out planned lawlessness by forcing compliance with the basics of constitutional culture. The basic values should not be negotiable — no matter how the issues are approached and solutions crafted. Willingness to compromise on the basic values leads to disaster.

In the discourse of democracy, whether it is the regime of King Gyanendra, G.P. Koirala or Madhav Kumar Nepal, civil society should remind everybody, thoroughly and consistently, that the country is governed by a written document, one that creates institutions of government and sets limits on what the government may do. The belief that the constitution is created by the citizenry, and that although it is not timeless, the understanding that until it is changed or revised, everybody is bound by it is the basic constitutional culture that has been wrecked in Nepal in recent years.

The people must be required to go along with its ultimate results even though they are free to disagree with them. The failure to appreciate the creation of a constitutional culture is a serious oversight. Had it been in order, Nepal would not only have efficiently protected its basic democratic credentials, but also the sovereignty of its people and the political institutions. It would not have been possible for anybody to overrun the dignity of the common people. Instead, what has come to exist is what poet Matthew Arnold has written in his poem “Dover Beach”:

“Nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain; And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,Where ignorant armies clash by night.”

Monday, May 3, 2010

आगामी जेठ १४ मा संविधान जारी हुन नसके उत्पन्न हुने परिस्थिति र संवैधानिक निकास

डा. विपिन अधिकारी

प|mान्सेली राजनीतिज्ञ पियार जोसेफ प्रोधोालाई "अराजकवादका पिता" भनिन्थ्यो । उनलाई कानुन व्यवस्था वा सरकारमा विश्वास थिएन । उनी अतिवादी दृष्टिकोण राख्दथे । उनले एउटा बहुचर्चित किताब पनि लेखेका थिए । यसको नाम थियो 'द कन्फेसन्स् अफ अ रिभोल्युसनरी' - एउटा क्रान्तिकारीको साविति बयान । त्यो साविति बयानमा लेखिएको थियो - क्रान्तिलाई हिंसा, रक्तपात, लुटपिट र मारामारको अर्थमा प्रयोग गर्ने जमातले संसारलाई उाभो लगाउन सक्ने छैन । आफू अराजनकतावादी भए पनि त्यस्तो परिपाटीको उनी भत्र्सना गर्दथे । अठारौा शताब्दिका यी दार्शनिक तथा द्वन्द्वात्मक भौतिकवादका व्याख्याता कार्ल माक्र्स्का बीच पछि भनाभन भई एकअर्कासाग बोलचाल पनि बन्द भयो । मौलिक अधिकार तथा स्वतन्त्रताप्रति अतिवादी दृष्टिकोण राख्ने प्रोधोा तथा यसलाई वर्ग संघर्षको दृष्टिले प्रयोग गर्ने माक्र्स्का बीच मिलन बिन्दु पाउन गाह्रो थियो । समसामयिक विश्वमा एउटा गम्भीर तेस्रो धार पनि छ, त्यो हो - कानुन शासन, प्रजातन्त्र तथा संविधानवादलाई आत्मसात् गर्दै अगाडि बढ्ने धार । नेपालमा आज पनि यिनै मान्यताहरु बीच द्वन्द्व छ । शान्ति प्रक्रिया गाह्रो हुादै गएको कारण पनि यही हो ।


संविधान जारी गर्न अब केवल २८ दिनमात्र बााकी छ । समाधान गर्नुपर्ने राजनैतिक समस्याहरु धेरै छन् । तर त्यसतर्फ निरन्तर उत्साह देखिादैन । धेरै काम भएका पनि छन् । तर तिनलाई टुंग्याउन केही अझ मेहनत नगरी हुादैन । अहिलेको अवस्थामा समयको अभावलाई दृष्टिगत गर्दा अपेक्षा गरे बमोजिम संविधान जारी गराउने दुइवटा सरल विकल्प थिए । पहिलो, तथा राजनैतिक रुपमा धान्न सकिने विकल्प भनेको राजनीतिज्ञहरुले संविधानसभामा उपस्थित गम्भीर विषयहरु तत्काल छिनोफानो गरिदिएर एउटा भविष्यमुखी संक्षिप्त संरचनाको संविधान -प|mेमवर्क कन्स्िटट्युसन) मार्फत संविधानसभालाई सुखान्तसभामा परिणत गर्न सक्दथे । यसलाई मस्यौदा गर्न धेरै समय लाग्ने थिएन । यसबाट मुलुकलाई अगाडि बढ्न गहकिलो राजनैतिक पुाजी प्राप्त हुने थियो । दास्रो विकल्प -जुन धेरै जनताको नजरमा विवादास्पद छ) संविधानको प्रारम्भिक मस्यौदा छलफल तथा जनसहभागिताका लागि जनतासमक्ष ल्याएर धारा ४८ लाई संशोधन गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि थप गर्दै वर्तमान विवादहरु समाधान गर्नेतर्फ उन्मुख हुने सम्भावना थियो ।

दुई वर्ष भित्रै संविधान निर्माण गर्ने कार्यादेश संशोधन गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि बढाउने सकिने स्पष्ट संवैधानिक आधार अन्तरिम संविधानमा छैन । तथापि गुम्दै जान सक्ने संक्रमणकालको वैधतालाई स्थायित्व दिनका लागि संविधान संशोधन गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि बढाउनु भन्दा सजिलो अर्को उपाय अब सम्भव नै छैन । पहिलो विकल्प अन्तर्गतको प्रक्रिया केही अगाडि नै सुरु गर्न सकेको भए यसले पूर्णता पाउन सक्थ्यो होला । तर अब त्यस प्रक्रिया अन्तर्गत पनि संविधानको पहिलो मस्यौदा लिई जनतामा जान तथा छलफल गर्न मुनासिब समय उपलब्ध छैन । तर विवादास्पद रुपमै भए पनि दोस्रो विकल्पको सान्दर्भिकता अझै पनि हुनसक्छ ।

तेस्रो विकल्प भनेको पहिलो तथा दोस्रो विकल्पतर्फ नगइ संकटकालीन स्थितिको घोषणा गरी संविधानको धारा ६४ बमोजिम यसको आयु ६ महिनाका लागि थप गर्ने हो । यो विकल्प नेपालको सार्वभौमसत्ता, अखण्डता वा कुनै भागको सुरक्षामा युद्ध, बाहृय आक्रमण, सशस्त्र विद्रोह वा चरम आर्थिक विश्रृंखलताको कारणले गम्भीर संकट उत्पन्न भएको अवस्थामा मात्र प्रयोग गर्न सकिन्छ । मन्त्रिपरिषद्को सिफारिसमा राष्ट्रपतिले संकटकालीन अवस्थाको घोषणा गर्न सक्ने भए तापनि त्यस्तो घोषणालाई संविधानसभाको दुई तिहाईको स्पष्ट समर्थन नभए एक महिनापछि स्वतः निष्कृय हुन्छ । संकटकालको स्थिति नै नभई संकटकाल लगाउनु संविधान निर्माणका हकमा वैध विकल्प हुन सक्दैन ।

तर पनि यदि उपरोक्त दोस्रो वा तेस्रो विकल्प अनुसार नै अगाडि बढ्ने राजनैतिक सहमति भए पनि यी दुवै प्रक्रिया सफल बनाउने सााचो संविधानसभाको सबैभन्दा ठुलो, तर हाल प्रतिपक्षको हैसियतमा भएको दल एकीकृत नेकपा माओवादीको हातमा छ । यसका लागि संविधानसभामा चाहिने दुईतिहाइ बहुमत उनीहरुको समर्थन विना पुग्दैन । तर माओवादीले धेरै पटक स्पष्ट गरिसकेको छ - राष्ट्रिय सरकारको संरचना अन्तर्गत आफू वर्तमान संक्रमणकालमा चालकको स्थानमा बस्न नपाउने हो भने निकास खोज्ने कुरामा उसलाई खास अभिरुचि छैन । उता माओवादीलाई यस अनुरुप सत्ता जिम्मा लगाएर भए पनि संविधान बनाउने कुरामा बााकी दलहरु सहमत हुन सकेको देखिादैन । यसै परिस्थितिमा मुलुक विभिन्न राजनैतिक आधारमा धु्रवीकरण हुादैछ । वैशाख १८ बाट सुरु भएको माओवादी आन्दोलन यसै परिप्रेक्ष्यमा आएको छ ।

नयाा संविधान पनि जारी नहुने वा वर्तमान अन्तरिम संविधान पनि संशोधन नहुने जेठ १४ पछिको अवस्थामा प्रतिनिधिसभाबाट जारी गरिएको नेपालको अन्तरिम संविधान, २०६३ का निम्न संवैधानिक व्यवस्थाहरुले संवैधानिक परिस्थितिलाई स्पष्ट पार्दछन्ः

धारा ६४ संविधानसभाको कार्यकालः संविधानसभाले प्रस्ताव गरी अगावै विघटन गरेकोमा बाहेक संविधानसभाको कार्यकाल संविधानसभाको पहिलो बैठक बसेको मितिले दुई वर्षसम्मको हुनेछ । तर मुलुकमा संकटकालीन स्थितिको घोषणा भएको कारणले संविधान निर्माण गर्ने कार्य पुरा हुन नसकेमा संविधानसभाले प्रस्ताव पारित गरी संविधानसभाको कार्यकाल थप छ महिनासम्म बढाउन सक्नेछ ।

धारा ८२ संविधानसभाको विघटनः संविधानसभाले पारित गरेको संविधान प्रारम्भ भएको दिनदेखि संविधानसभाको काम समाप्त हुनेछ । तर, संविधानसभाले पारित गरेको संविधानबमोजिम व्यवस्थापिका संसद्को निर्वाचन नभएसम्मका लागि व्यवस्थापिका संसद्को काम, कारबाही सो सभाले पारित गरेको संविधानमा उल्लेख भएबमोजिम हुनेछ ।

धारा ८३ व्यवस्थापिका संसद्को हैसियतमा काम गर्ने ः खण्ड -१) यस भागमा अन्यत्र जुनसुकै कुरा लेखिएको भए तापनि संविधानसभा कायम रहेको अवधिभर सो सभाले व्यवस्थापिका संसद्को काम समेत गर्ने छ र नियमित विधायनसम्बन्धी कार्य सम्पादन गर्न संविधानसभाले छुट्टै समिति गठन गर्न सक्नेछ ।

धारा १५७ जनमत संग्रहबाट निर्णय गर्न सकिने ः -१) यस संविधानमा अन्यत्र व्यवस्था भएकोमा बाहेक राष्ट्रिय महत्वको कुनै विषयमा जनमत संग्रहबाट निर्णय गर्न आवश्यक छ भनी संविधानसभाले तत्काल कायम रहेका सम्पूर्ण सदस्यहरुको दुई तिहाई सदस्यको बहुमतबाट निर्णय गरेमा त्यस्तो विषयमा जनमत संग्रहबाट निर्णय लिन सकिने छ । -२) उपधारा -१) बमोजिमको प्रक्रियाबाट निर्णय लिइने कार्यविधि कानुनद्वारा निर्धारण भएबमोजिम हुनेछ ।

धारा १५८ बाधा अड्काउ फुकाउने अधिकारः यो संविधानको कार्यान्वयन गर्न कुनै बाधा अड्काउ परेमा राष्ट्रपतिले मन्त्रिपरिषद्को सिफारिसमा त्यस्तो वाधा अड्काउ फुकाउन आदेश जारी गर्न सक्नेछ र यस्तो आदेश व्यवस्थापिका संसद् ... ... ... ... एक महिनाभित्र अनुमोदन गराउनु पर्नेछ ।

धारा ३६ -ग) राष्ट्रपतिको पदावधिः राष्ट्रपतिको पदावधि संविधानसभाबाट जारी हुने संविधान प्रारम्भ नभएसम्मका लागि हुनेछ ।

उपरोक्त प्रावधानहरु समेतले निम्न परिस्थितिहरुको सृजना गर्नेछन्ः

O जेठ १४ गते पछि संविधानसभा यसभित्रका विषयगत समिति, प्रक्रियागत समितिहरु लगायत सबै संयन्त्रहरु निष्कृय हुनेछन् । संविधान निर्माण गर्ने यसको वैधानिक हैसियत समाप्त हुने छ ।

O संविधान बनेका अवस्थामा मात्र संविधानसभाको व्यवस्थापिका संसद्को हैसियतले निरन्तरता पाउने अन्तरिम संविधानमा उल्लेख गरिएकाले व्यवस्थापिका संसद् पनि कायम रहने छैन ।

O मुलुकको व्यवस्थापिका संसद् निष्कृय भए पनि वैधानिक सरकार कायम रहने छ । तर यसको हैसियत संसद् विघटन भइसकेको अवस्थामा रहेको संसदीय सरकारको जस्तो कामचलाउ वा केयरटेकरको जस्तो हुनेछ । यसको मुलुकका बारेमा महत्वपूर्ण निर्णयहरु गर्न सक्ने एकल वैधानिक हैसियत कायम रहने छैन ।

O संविधानको धारा ३६ -ग) बमोजिम राष्ट्रपतिको पदावधि संविधानसभाबाट जारी हुने संविधान प्रारम्भ नभएसम्म लागु हुने भनिएकाले अर्को संविधान नआएसम्म राष्ट्रपति कायम रहने छन् । तर निजलाई निर्वाचित गर्ने व्यवस्थापिका संसद् नहुादाको अवस्थाले राष्ट्रपतिलाई समेत प्रभावित गर्नेछ ।

O उपरोक्त संवैधानिक शुन्यताको परिस्थितिमा जनमत संग्रहबाट निकास खोज्न पनि सम्भव हुने छैन । किनकी त्यस्तो निर्णय व्यवस्थापिका संसद्ले नै अनुमोदन गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ ।

O त्यसैगरी बाधा अड्काउ फुकाउने राष्ट्रपतिको अधिकार काम चलाउ सरकारको सिफारिसमा प्रयोग हुन सक्ने भए तापनि यसलाई एक महिनाभित्र व्यवस्थापिका संसद्बाट अनुमोदन गराउनु पर्ने भएको हुादा यो बाटोको पनि वैध संवैधानिक प्रयोग सम्भव हुने छैन ।

O यी सबै अप्ठ्याराहरु माझ अन्तरिम संविधान कायमै रहनेछ । तर जेठ १४ पछि संकटकालीन अधिकारको घोषणा वैध रुपमा १ महिनाभन्दा बढी गर्न सकिने छैन । किनकी यो मन्त्रिपरिषद्को सिफारिसमा राष्ट्रपतिले गर्न सक्ने भए पनि संविधानसभा अस्तित्वमा नरहने भएको हुादा १ महिनाभित्र व्यवस्थ्ापिका संसद्को बैठकमा पेस गर्न यहाा पनि सम्भव हुने छैन । यसको अभावमा त्यस्तो घोषणा १ महिना पछि स्वतः रद्द हुने छ ।

O यस्तो परिस्थितिको एउटै टड्कारो निष्कर्ष छ । संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि समाप्त हुनासाथ मुलुक अब दुई वर्ष अघिदेखिको यथास्थितिमा रहने छैन । संविधान बनाउनका लागि चैत्र २०६४ को निर्वाचनले अहिलेका संविधानसभालाई दिएको कार्यादेश फिर्ता हुनेछ । नयाा संविधान पनि जारी भएन तथा संविधानसभाको कार्यावधि पनि संशोधन भएन भने अगाडि कसरी बढ्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमा संविधान स्पष्ट छैन । दुविधा भएको अवस्थामा सर्वोच्च अदालतबाट राय माग्ने संवैधानिक परम्पराको वर्तमान संविधानले अन्त्य गरिसकेको छ । अर्को शब्दमा यी सबै यथार्थहरुले संवैधानिक संयन्त्र असफल भएको पुष्टि हुनेछ । त्यस्तो परिस्थितिमा अहिलेको शक्ति सन्तुलनका घटकहरुले चाहे पनि नचाहे पनि अवरुद्ध भएको संवैधानिक संयन्त्रलाई सहज बनाउन नयाा कार्यादेशका लागि अर्को आमचुनाव गराउनुको विकल्प छैन । यो बाटोका राजनैतिक जोखिमहरु प्रशस्त छन् । तर त्यस्तो चुनाव पनि संविधान संशोधन नगरी सम्भव हुने छैन । वैध रुपमा कुनै निकास निस्कन नसक्ने यो परिस्थितिले स्पष्ट रुपमा मुलुकमा संवैधानिक संकटको पुनः सुरुवात हुने देखिन्छ ।

उपरोक्त संवैधानिक संकट -कन्स्िटट्युसनल क्राइसिस) सागै मुलुकले आन्तरिक सुरक्षा चुनौतीहरुको पनि सामना गर्नुपर्ने अवस्था कसैबाट लुकेको छैन । राजनैतिक स्तरमा कतिपय आम सञ्चार माध्यम वा जनसहभागिताका लागि आयोजित कार्यक्रमहरुमा अतिवादी दृष्टिकोणहरु देखिादै आएका छन् । हाल सुरु हुन गइरहेको एनेकपा माओवादीको आन्दोलन स्थगित भएन भने यसले राजनैतिक धु्रवीकरणको प्रक्रियालाई अझ बल पुर्‍याउने छ । खासगरी सर्वसाधारणलाई अत्याउने खालका गतिविधिबाटै अन्ततः हतियारको प्रयोगसम्मको स्थितिको सुत्रपात हुने हुन्छ । त्यसैले जेठ १४ पछिको परिस्थितिमा आउन सक्ने शान्तिसुरक्षा सम्बन्धी चुनौतीका लागि सुरक्षा संयन्त्रलाई तयार राख्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । कुरा केवल सुरक्षा स्रोतहरुको परिचालनको मात्र होइन । खानेपानी, खाद्यान्न, ओखतीमुलो, तेलआपूर्ति तथा सार्वजनिक आवागमनलाई सुचारु राख्नु सरकारको ठुलो जिम्मेवारी हुनेछ । व्यवस्थापिका संसद् नरहेको स्थितिमा कुनै पनि सरकारले संकटको सामना गर्दा आफूलाई संवैधानिक परिधिभित्र सीमित हुन गाह्रो हुने यथार्थ यसै पनि प्रष्ट नै छ ।

सरकार परिवर्तनका लागि यहाा सुरु हुादै गएको एनेकपा माओवादीकको आन्दोलनको वैधानिक आधार संविधानसभा अन्तर्गत रहेर 'कोअलिसन' बनाउने तथा अविश्वासको प्रस्ताव ल्याएर सरकार परिवर्तन गर्ने रहेको छैन । स्पष्ट रुपमा आन्दोलनका आधारमा खासगरी सुरक्षा चुनौतीका माध्यमबाट सरकारलाई घुाडा टेकाउने उद्देश्य आयोजकले नै स्पष्ट गरिसकेकाले यसमा थप आलोचना गर्नुपर्ने आवश्यकता छैन । उता वर्तमान सरकार तथा यसका घटकहरु यस पृष्ठभूमिमा सरकार बनाउन एनेकपा माओवादीलाई ठाउा छोड्न अनिच्छुक देखिन्छन् । यसका विभिन्न कारणहरु छन् । निस्सन्देह सबैभन्दा मुख्य कारण भनेको संयुक्त राष्ट्र संघीय मिसन -अनमिन) को सुपरीवेक्षणमा रहेका माओवादी लडाकुहरुको समायोजन तथा व्यवस्थापन अझ सम्म हुन नसक्नु तथा माओवादीको बहुमतमा आएका संविधानसभाका विषयगत समितिहरुको प्रतिवेदनमा निहित विभिन्न संवैधानिक विषयहरु हुन् । ती विषयहरुले माओवादी पार्टी मुलुकको प्रजातान्त्रिक भविष्य प्रति निष्ठावान् छैन कि भन्ने सोचाइ पनि देखा परेको छ । खासगरी सडकमा बल प्रदर्शन गरेरै भए पनि सरकार अपदस्थ गर्न सकिन्छ भन्ने मान्यताबाट नयाा संविधान आम सहमतिबाटै आए पनि यसले स्थापित गर्ने 'रुल्स अफ द गेम' बल प्रयोगको आधारमा मात्र हुने खतरा धेरैले स्पष्ट रुपमा देखेका छन् ।

यस्तो राजनैतिक परिस्थितिले राष्ट्रपतिलाई 'संवैधानिक' भएर बस्ने वातावरण दिने छैन । सहजकर्तामा राष्ट्रपतिको भूमिका स्वतः देखा पर्ने छ । संविधान संशोधन गरेर अगाडि बढ्दासम्म संवैधानिक राष्ट्रपति राजनीतिको दायरामा आउनु जरुरी हुन्थेन । तर परिस्थिति अब त्यति सहज हुने छैन । निश्चित रुपमा परिवर्तित सन्दर्भमा राष्ट्रपतिको जिम्मेवारी स्वतः बढ्ने छन् । त्यस्तै न काम चलाउ सरकार 'केयरटेकर' को रुपमा संवैधानिक प्रक्रियाबाट समस्याको समाधानतर्फ अघि बढ्न सक्नेछ न चुप लागेर बस्न नै यसलाई सम्भव हुनेछ । आफ्नो राजनैतिक हैसियत गुम्दै जाादा कामचलाउ सरकारले राष्ट्राध्यक्ष समेतको सहयोगमा अगाडि बढ्नुको विकल्प हुने छैन । निकास खोज्ने प्रक्रियामा सबै राजनैतिक दलहरुको सहभागिता पुनः आवश्यक हुनेछ । तर संवैधानिक शुन्यताको स्थितिमा निर्वाचन गराइ निर्वाचित सरकारको शपथ ग्रहण नगर्दासम्म तथा शपथ ग्रहण भइसकेपछि नयाा व्यवस्थापिका संसद्बाट संविधान संशोधन नहुन्जेलसम्म संवैधानिक दुष्चक्र आफ्नो जोखिम टाउकामा राखी घुमिरहने यथार्थ प्रष्ट देखिन्छ । राजनैतिक अकर्मण्यता तथा शक्ति सञ्चालनमा भएको अस्पष्टतालाई उपरोक्त व्यवस्थाले निकास दिन नसके समयको प्रवाहले राष्ट्रपति तथा मुलुकको कामचलाउ सरकारलाई पनि पछाडि घचेडिदिन सक्नेछ ।

जेठ १४ पछिको सन्दर्भमा मुलुकको आवश्यकता के हो तथा त्यस्तो आवश्यकता कसरी पूर्ति गर्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमासबै राजनैतिक समुह बीच मतैक्यता गर्न ढिलाइ गर्नु अब प्रत्युत्पादक हुन्छ । अत्याधिक अस्थिरताका कारण वा प्रजातान्त्रिक प्रक्रियाले निकास दिन नसक्दा गत दुई शताब्दिमा संसारभरि अधिनायकवादी व्यवस्थाहरु जसरी च्याउ उमे्रजस्तो उमि्रन पुगे । त्यो बुझिआएकै कुरा हो । संसारमा तानाशाहहरुको विभिन्न रुपहरु छन् । हरेक तानाशाह आˆनो समयको उपज हुन्छ । अचानक तानाशाहको जन्म हुादैन । त्यसको आवश्यकता गहिरोसाग सृजना हुादै गएको हुन्छ तथा वैध शक्तिको कमीकमजोरीहरुबाट सृजित भएको हुन सक्छ । यो कथा केवल युरोपमा देखा परेको फाासीवादी वा साम्यवादी अधिनायकवादको मात्र होइन । एसिया तथा ल्याटिन अमेरिकी मुलुकहरुले भोगेको सैनिक तथा आदर्शवादी तानाशाही व्यवस्थाबाट पनि बुझ्न सकिन्छ ।सुरुमा सैद्धान्तिक रुपमा को कुन कित्तामा उभिएको थिए भन्ने विषय कालान्तरमा गौण भएकै हो । सबैजसो अधिनायकवाद अस्थिरताको फाइदा उठाउादै आएका व्यक्तिहरुबाट लादिएको इतिहासले देखाउाछ । बर्मादेखि अफगानिस्तानसम्म तथा चीनदेखि श्रीलंकासम्म अधिनायकवादी शासनको उत्थान र पतन देखिआएकै कुरा हो । मुलुकलाई यो सम्भावनाबाट बचाउनु आजका सबै राजनैतिक शक्तिहरुको जिम्मेवारी हो ।

यो मुलुकको क्षमता र सामथ्र्य तथा आˆनो योग्यतालाई बुझ्ने प्रयास नै नगरी भइरहेको नेपालको परिवर्तन निस्सन्देह एउटा कठिन मोडमा आएको छ । तर सम्भावनाको कुरा गर्दा सबैभन्दा सहज तथा सरल उपाय भनेको अहिले पनि राष्ट्रिय सहमति तथा सहकार्य नै हो । अराजकतावाद सभ्य समाजको आधार हुन सक्दैन । त्यस्तै केवल वर्ग संघर्षको दृष्टिकोणले मात्र हेरियो भने प्रजातान्त्रिक मूल्य मान्यताहरु कहिल्यै पनि स्थापित हुन सक्ने छैनन् ।

मुलकमा जानेर वा नजानेर भइरहेका परिवर्तनहरुलाई प्रजातन्त्र तथा राष्ट्रवादतर्फ मोड्नका लागि वर्तमान सरकारले एनेकपा माओवादीसाग भएको बृहत शान्ति सम्झौता तथा अन्तरिम संविधान तथा एनेकपा माओवादीले संवैधानिक प्रजातन्त्र तथा मानव अधिकारतर्फ आफ्नो प्रतिबद्धतालाई प्रष्ट गर्ने हो भने नेतृत्व हस्तान्तरणको कुरा समस्याका रुपमा हेरिनु हुादैन । खासगरी विगत दुई वर्षको अनुभवका आधारमा माओवादीबाट पुरा हुन नसकेका प्रतिबद्धताहरुका सम्बन्धमा पुनः सम्झौता गरी सबैभन्दा ठुलो पार्टीका रुपमा माओवादीलाई सरकार चलाउने अवसर तथा संविधानसभालाई सुखान्तमा परिणत गराउने राजनैतिक जिम्मेवारी दिन सकिन्छ । निश्चित रुपमा प्रजातन्त्रवादीहरु माओवादीको प्रतिपक्षविहीन शासकीय स्वरुप, जातीय संघीयता तथा संसद्मुखी न्यायपालिकाको अवधारणा प्रति सन्देह राख्दछन् । त्यस्तै राष्ट्रिय सहमति बमोजिम नै लडाकुहरुको व्यवस्थापन हुनुपर्ने विषयमा पनि माओवादीहरु संवेदनशील हुनु जरुरी छ । अहिलेको समय भनेको त्यस्ता सन्देह तथा त्यसका आधारहरुको छिनोफानो गर्ने समय हो । त्यो हुन सकेमा संविधानसभाको बााकी अवधिका लागि माओवादीको नेतृत्व प्रति कसैको गुनासो रहने छैन । माओवादीहरुको सहभागिताले संविधानसभालाई संवैधानिक निकास सहित वैध रुपमा अगाडि बढ्न बल पुग्ने छ । वर्तमान संक्रमणकालको अन्त्य सकारात्मक रुपमा गर्नका लागि यस विकल्पको चुनौतीहरु पनि छन् । त्यसलाई अहिले नै बुझी टुंगो लगाउनु पर्ने हुन्छ ।

डा. अधिकारी संविधानविद् हुन् । यो कार्यपत्र नेपाल कन्स्िटट्युसन फण्डेसनद्वारा २०६७ वैशाख १७ गते आयोजित कार्यक्रममा प्रस्तुत गरिएको थियो ।)

Friday, April 9, 2010

Cards up his sleeve

There must be an exit point for every political crisis if the country is to move ahead. The president, even though he was elected to be a constitutional president, cannot keep watching from the sidelines while the country is close to disaster.

BIPIN ADHIKARIhttp://www.ekantipur.com/the-kathmandu-post/2010/04/08/Oped/Cards-up-his-sleeve/207019/

APR 08 - Recently, references in the media as to what the president needs to do if the Constituent Assembly (CA) is not able to deliver a new constitution by Friday, May 28, have become quite frequent.

There is clear indication that a new democratic constitution by May 28 is unlikely. There are many issues which are yet to be resolved, but too little efforts to materialise them. Even the possibility of the Constituent Assembly coming up with a framework constitution, based on crucial compromises on important political and constitutional issues, leaving the details for the future, looks slim.

The rest, including the (controversial) amendment of Article 64 of the Interim Constitution, to extend the tenure of the CA, and a new deadline, is at the mercy of UCPN (Maoist). Without its backing, the house cannot garner a two-third majority to pass any amendment bill. The Maoist party is aware of this, and as long as it is not in the driving seat, it thinks there is simply not enough incentive for it to gratify anybody. The road map, however, does not seem to have a signpost for the changeover. The limits of negotiation are no more secret.

This status quo cannot continue after May 28. On May 29, the Constituent Assembly will cease to exist. All existing institutions based on the CA will also lose their constitutional status. The principles of revolutionary legality, pursued by the leaders of the Jana Andolan II, cannot possibly be resurrected as the revolutionary fervour has died down. Girija Prasad Koirala, who gave democratic face to the recent restructuring of Nepal, is also no more. It is natural for people, therefore, to look at the president and try to fathom what he will do as the last authority in the state hierarchy.

Nobody wants the president to usurp the space for democratic politics. But any delay in properly assessing the situation might not help the democratic and nationalist aspirations of the common people. After all, those who know how dictators proliferated during the last two centuries in Europe, which witnessed the rise and fall of fascism and communism, but also in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where military as well as ideological dictators have emerged, understand that time and tide will not wait even for the president.

Assumption of power by potential dictators in a volatile situation as now persists in the country is nothing new. Every dictator is a product of his time. It hardly comes on all of a sudden and out of the blue. The need is felt acutely, and somebody takes the lead and fills up the power vacuum. In fact, if one goes by history, words like ‘dictator’ and ‘tyrant’ hardly bore any negative connotations in the beginning. One can find many references, when the term ‘dictator’ was used to indicate a person taking over power for a limited time to deal with an emergency. Similarly, the word ‘tyrant’, which has no positive overtone anymore, was also a respectable Greek title for most of history. But the story does not stop there.

The rise of all dictators including Pol Pot, Mao Zedong, Ho Chi Minh, Ferdinand Marcos, Napoleon Bonaparte, Slobodan Milosevich, Muammar al Quaddafi, Josef Stalin, Leonid Brezhnev, Juan Perón, Manuel Noriega, Fulgencio Battista, Saddam Hussein, Adolf Hitler, and many more epitomise the phenomena. There are dozens of examples to be found in Nepal’s neighbourhood of how dictatorships develop and are sustained — from Burma to Afghanistan, China to Sri Lanka.

So long as the constitution is not amended, and the future direction is charted out through this process, the president of Nepal as a constitutional head of the state has little responsibility. However, the demise of the Constituent Assembly, by all means, leads to a constitutional crisis, which must be tackled in order to set the future course. The failure of the constitutional machinery, and the inability of the government to give a legitimate outlet to the nation, does not mean that the president should not come up with a contingency plan to minimise the risks to the country in this unfortunate situation.

A strong component of such a contingency plan, no doubt, involves massive security arrangements to keep the situation under control, and ad hoc arrangements to allow further opportunities for the political forces to design a democratic exit strategy. This also involves a series of decisions about the peace process, and management of combatants in different cantonments under the supervision of the United Nations Mission in Nepal. There is no reason why the president should not take an initiative to start the consultation process. If it is too much for the president, then the political machinery must be able to convince the nation that it has both the capacity and willingness to deliver according to the letter and spirit of the constitution.

There must be an exit point for every political crisis if the country is to move ahead. The president, even though he was elected to be a constitutional president, cannot keep watching from the sidelines while the country is close to disaster.

In Nepal itself, the Licchavi King Amshuvarma (605-629 AD) is a great example. He took the throne when his father-in-law died, there was no heir apparent, and the situation was shaky. He married his daughter to Tibetan king Srong Chong Gampo and sister to king Samudragupta of Maurya dynasty of India, thus keeping Nepal safe from neighbourhood challenges. If the account of the famous Chinese traveller Huen Tsang is true, Amshuvarma was greatly helpful in maintaining the glory of his country. In the age of feudal relationships, there would not have been any better alternative to the situation.

Similarly, Giuseppe Garibaldi, the Italian revolutionary of the 19th century, also proclaimed himself as an interlocutor during his famous Expedition of the Thousand. Garibaldi was not a popular choice. But this did not prevent him from being awfully popular in Italy and in the estimates of international public.

The position of the president of Nepal is that of a constitutional president. (It is not a ceremonial position.) He is not supposed to have any independent power, but there is nothing in the constitution that bars him from facilitating the constitutional process as the head of the nation to find a democratic exit for the country.